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Tuesday, July 10, 2012
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Futures Market Recap for Friday 03.28.08
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The STOCK INDEXES
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The June NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If June renews this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1885.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1754.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
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The June S&P 500 index closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off Monday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top has likely been posted. However, closes below last Friday's low crossing at 1288.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1390.70 is the next upside target.
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The Dow closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off last week's low but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,194. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,194 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow renews this month's rally, February's high crossing at 12,756 is the next upside target.
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INTEREST RATES
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June T-bonds closed up 11/32's at 118-17 June T-bonds closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the early-March low crossing at 116-06 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 119-19 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 118-20. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 119-12. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 117-25. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 116-06.
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ENERGY MARKETS
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May crude oil closed lower on Friday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this week's rally but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 104.69. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at 110.35 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing 98.65 would renew this month's decline and could lead to a test of the 38% retracement level of the 2007-2008- rally crossing at 94.17. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 108.22. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 110.35. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 104.69. Second support is the 25% retracement level crossing at 99.77.
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May heating oil closed lower on Friday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this week's rally but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 296.24. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, the contract high crossing at 310.93 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 279.23 would confirm that a double top with the mid-March high has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 305.56. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 310.93. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 296.24. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 292.42.
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May unleaded gas posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 276.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 267.33. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 265.59.
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May Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday as it extended this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at 10.365 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 9.089 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 9.846 then March's high crossing at 10.365. First support is the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 9.548. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 9.117.
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CURRENCIES
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The June Dollar closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at 71.20 is the next downside target. Closes below 71.20 would renew this month's decline into uncharted territory making downside targets hard to project. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 72.41 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.96. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 71.75. Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 71.20.
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The June Euro closed slightly lower on Friday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. June's resumption of this winter's rally into uncharted territory makes upside targets hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 154.275 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 157.65. First support is Wednesday's gap crossing at 155.530. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 155.857.
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The June British Pound closed lower on Friday due to profit taking and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If June extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at 2.0230 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 1.9640 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.9870. Second resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 2.0060. First support is today's low crossing at 1.9760. Second support is Tuesday's gap crossing at 1.9742.
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The June Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, the contract high crossing at .10170 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .9856 are needed to confirm that a double top with the mid-March high has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at .10099. Second resistance is the contract high crossing at .10170. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9990 then Wednesday's gap crossing at .9925.
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The June Canadian Dollar posted a quiet inside day with a lower close on Friday as it extended this week's narrow trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a double bottom with January's low might be forming. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews last week's decline, January's low crossing at 96.83 is the next downside target. From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 102.70 or below 96.83 to confirm a breakout of this winter's trading range. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 98.71. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.77. First support is January's low crossing at 96.83 then last Thursday's low crossing at 96.95.
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The June Japanese Yen posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at .10108. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .9944 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews this year's rally, monthly resistance crossing at .10408 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at .10270. Second resistance is last week's high crossing at .10385. First support is Monday's low crossing at .9955. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9944. ~
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PRECIOUS METALS
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June gold closed lower on Friday due to end of quarter profit taking. A short covering rebound tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 972.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews last week's decline, the 38% retracement level crossing at 897.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 960.30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 972.00. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 909.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 897.80.
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May silver closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.357 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews last week's decline, the 50% retracement level crossing at 16.585 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 18.685 then the 25% retracement level crossing at 19.015. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 16.725 then the 50% retracement level crossing at 16.585.
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May copper closed lower on Friday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this week's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.25. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at 402.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 371.96 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 392.75. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 402.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.25. Second support is the 25% retracement level crossing at 373.77.
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FOOD & FIBER
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May coffee closed lower on Friday and below the 75% retracement level of the May-February rally crossing at 13.08 as it extends this week's narrow trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. If May renews this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the May-February rally crossing at 12.39 is the next downside target. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
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May cocoa closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 24.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the August-March rally crossing at 22.41 is the next downside target.
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May sugar closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally but remains above the 62% retracement level of the August-February rally crossing at 11.57. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 12.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the August-February rally crossing at 10.83 is the next downside target.
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May cotton closed lower on Friday due to profit taking and position squaring ahead of Monday's acreage and quarterly stocks reports. The acreage estimates are as follows. The average acreage estimate is 9.20 million acres. The range is 8.85-9.5 acres and the 07-08 seeding is 10.83 acres. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews this month's decline, February's low crossing at 68.05 is the next downside target.
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GRAINS
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May corn closed up 5 1/2-cents at 5.61. May corn closed higher on Friday as it extends this week's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.52 1/2. Today's rally was supported by expectations for a bullish acreage report in Monday's USDA report. The general consensus in the market is that we could see a significant drop in corn acres while demand remains strong thus maintaining a bullish psychology in the market. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, the 87% retracement level of this month's decline crossing at 5.69 3/4 then the contract high crossing at 5.79 1/2 are the next upside targets. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.41 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.62. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level crossing at 5.69 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 5.47 1/2. The second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.41 3/4.
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May wheat closed down 25-cents at 9.89. May wheat closed lower on Friday due to profit taking and position squaring ahead of Monday's government reports. Today's low spiked below last week's low crossing at 9.76 thereby opening the door for a possible test of the long-term uptrend line crossing near 9.38. A short covering rally led by gains in corn tempered early losses and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If May extends last week's decline, the uptrend line drawn off the May-November's low crossing near 9.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.09 3/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
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May Kansas City Wheat closed down 32 3/4-cents at 10.22 1/4. May Kansas City Wheat gapped down and closed lower on Friday thereby renewing this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 8.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. May Minneapolis wheat closed down 26 3/4-cents at 12.54.
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May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday and below last Thursday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.99 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends this week's decline, this month's low crossing at 12.35 is the next downside target. Closes below 12.35 would renew this month's decline while opening the door for a possible test of the 62% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 12.10 1/2.
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SOYBEAN COMPLEX
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May soybeans closed down 60-cents at 12.67 1/4. May soybeans gapped down and plunged sharply lower due to nervous selling on Friday ahead of Monday's plantings and stocks reports leaving a potential two-day island top on the daily chart. The outlook for a significant increase in soybean acres in Monday's report was the driving factor behind today's decline as traders looked to trim their risk exposure heading into Monday's reports. Additional pressure came from rumors that Argentina's 16-day farmers strike might be coming to an end and a rebound in the U.S. Dollar. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Despite today's sharp decline, stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews this week's rally, the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.76 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.76 1/2 would open the door for a possible test of the March 7th gap crossing at 14.58 1/2 later this spring.
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May soybean meal closed down $6.50 at $342.30. May soybean meal gapped down and closed lower on Friday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this week's short covering rally. Despite today's decline, May remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 334.60. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews this week's rally, the March 7th gap crossing at 368.80 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's gap crossing at 330.30 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.
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May soybean oil closed down 250 pts. at 54.98. May soybean oil gapped lower on the open and closed limit on Friday after the USDA revised yesterday's soybean oil stocks. On Thursday the USDA estimated U.S. soybean oil stocks at 2.68 billion pounds. However, this morning's revised estimate was raised by 430 million pounds to 3.101 billion pounds thereby triggering today's huge sell off. Additional pressure came from position squaring ahead of Monday's acreage and quarterly grain stocks report. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Despite today's limit down close, stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 59.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews last week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the August-March rally crossing at 53.20 is the next downside target.
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LIVESTOCK
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June hogs closed unchanged at $70.37. June hogs closed unchanged on Friday but not before spiking to a new contract low. Today's hogs and pigs report was view as bearish by analysts and traders as nearly all categories exceeded the high end of the pre-report survey forecast. The U.S. Department of Agriculture pegged all hogs and pigs numbers at 107.0% versus an average pre-report range of 103.3% to 105.6% of a year ago, with an average of 104.6%. The kept for breeding number came in at 100.0%. Forecasts showed a 100.2% average derived from a 99.0% to 102.0% range. The marketing figure came in at 107.0% versus a 105.3% forecast average. The projected range was 103.5% to 106.3%. The general consensus is that futures will be down sharply on Monday following today's bearish report. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 66.42 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.73 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 71.19. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.73. First support is today's low crossing at 69.95 then weekly support crossing at 66.42.
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May bellies closed down $1.00 at $70.50. May bellies gapped down and closed sharply lower on Friday posting a new contract low as it extended the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 70.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.17 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. April cattle closed down $0.97 at 87.65.
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April cattle posted a new contract low on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 87.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. April feeder cattle closed down $0.35 at $100.42.
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April Feeder cattle closed lower and posted a new contract low on Friday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 98.99 is the next downside target. However, closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
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Commodity Trading for Beginners
The STOCK INDEXES
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The June NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If June renews this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1885.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1754.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
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The June S&P 500 index closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off Monday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top has likely been posted. However, closes below last Friday's low crossing at 1288.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1390.70 is the next upside target.
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The Dow closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off last week's low but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,194. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,194 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow renews this month's rally, February's high crossing at 12,756 is the next upside target.
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INTEREST RATES
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June T-bonds closed up 11/32's at 118-17 June T-bonds closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the early-March low crossing at 116-06 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 119-19 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 118-20. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 119-12. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 117-25. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 116-06.
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ENERGY MARKETS
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May crude oil closed lower on Friday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this week's rally but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 104.69. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at 110.35 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing 98.65 would renew this month's decline and could lead to a test of the 38% retracement level of the 2007-2008- rally crossing at 94.17. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 108.22. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 110.35. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 104.69. Second support is the 25% retracement level crossing at 99.77.
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May heating oil closed lower on Friday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this week's rally but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 296.24. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, the contract high crossing at 310.93 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 279.23 would confirm that a double top with the mid-March high has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 305.56. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 310.93. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 296.24. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 292.42.
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May unleaded gas posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 276.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 267.33. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 265.59.
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May Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday as it extended this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at 10.365 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 9.089 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 9.846 then March's high crossing at 10.365. First support is the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 9.548. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 9.117.
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CURRENCIES
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The June Dollar closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at 71.20 is the next downside target. Closes below 71.20 would renew this month's decline into uncharted territory making downside targets hard to project. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 72.41 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.96. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 71.75. Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 71.20.
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The June Euro closed slightly lower on Friday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. June's resumption of this winter's rally into uncharted territory makes upside targets hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 154.275 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 157.65. First support is Wednesday's gap crossing at 155.530. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 155.857.
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The June British Pound closed lower on Friday due to profit taking and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If June extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at 2.0230 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 1.9640 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.9870. Second resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 2.0060. First support is today's low crossing at 1.9760. Second support is Tuesday's gap crossing at 1.9742.
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The June Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, the contract high crossing at .10170 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .9856 are needed to confirm that a double top with the mid-March high has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at .10099. Second resistance is the contract high crossing at .10170. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9990 then Wednesday's gap crossing at .9925.
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The June Canadian Dollar posted a quiet inside day with a lower close on Friday as it extended this week's narrow trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a double bottom with January's low might be forming. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews last week's decline, January's low crossing at 96.83 is the next downside target. From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 102.70 or below 96.83 to confirm a breakout of this winter's trading range. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 98.71. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.77. First support is January's low crossing at 96.83 then last Thursday's low crossing at 96.95.
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The June Japanese Yen posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at .10108. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .9944 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews this year's rally, monthly resistance crossing at .10408 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at .10270. Second resistance is last week's high crossing at .10385. First support is Monday's low crossing at .9955. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9944. ~
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PRECIOUS METALS
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June gold closed lower on Friday due to end of quarter profit taking. A short covering rebound tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 972.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews last week's decline, the 38% retracement level crossing at 897.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 960.30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 972.00. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 909.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 897.80.
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May silver closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.357 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews last week's decline, the 50% retracement level crossing at 16.585 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 18.685 then the 25% retracement level crossing at 19.015. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 16.725 then the 50% retracement level crossing at 16.585.
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May copper closed lower on Friday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this week's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.25. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at 402.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 371.96 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 392.75. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 402.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.25. Second support is the 25% retracement level crossing at 373.77.
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FOOD & FIBER
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May coffee closed lower on Friday and below the 75% retracement level of the May-February rally crossing at 13.08 as it extends this week's narrow trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. If May renews this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the May-February rally crossing at 12.39 is the next downside target. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
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May cocoa closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 24.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the August-March rally crossing at 22.41 is the next downside target.
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May sugar closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally but remains above the 62% retracement level of the August-February rally crossing at 11.57. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 12.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the August-February rally crossing at 10.83 is the next downside target.
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May cotton closed lower on Friday due to profit taking and position squaring ahead of Monday's acreage and quarterly stocks reports. The acreage estimates are as follows. The average acreage estimate is 9.20 million acres. The range is 8.85-9.5 acres and the 07-08 seeding is 10.83 acres. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews this month's decline, February's low crossing at 68.05 is the next downside target.
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GRAINS
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May corn closed up 5 1/2-cents at 5.61. May corn closed higher on Friday as it extends this week's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.52 1/2. Today's rally was supported by expectations for a bullish acreage report in Monday's USDA report. The general consensus in the market is that we could see a significant drop in corn acres while demand remains strong thus maintaining a bullish psychology in the market. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, the 87% retracement level of this month's decline crossing at 5.69 3/4 then the contract high crossing at 5.79 1/2 are the next upside targets. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.41 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.62. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level crossing at 5.69 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 5.47 1/2. The second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.41 3/4.
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May wheat closed down 25-cents at 9.89. May wheat closed lower on Friday due to profit taking and position squaring ahead of Monday's government reports. Today's low spiked below last week's low crossing at 9.76 thereby opening the door for a possible test of the long-term uptrend line crossing near 9.38. A short covering rally led by gains in corn tempered early losses and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If May extends last week's decline, the uptrend line drawn off the May-November's low crossing near 9.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.09 3/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
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May Kansas City Wheat closed down 32 3/4-cents at 10.22 1/4. May Kansas City Wheat gapped down and closed lower on Friday thereby renewing this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 8.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. May Minneapolis wheat closed down 26 3/4-cents at 12.54.
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May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday and below last Thursday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.99 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends this week's decline, this month's low crossing at 12.35 is the next downside target. Closes below 12.35 would renew this month's decline while opening the door for a possible test of the 62% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 12.10 1/2.
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SOYBEAN COMPLEX
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May soybeans closed down 60-cents at 12.67 1/4. May soybeans gapped down and plunged sharply lower due to nervous selling on Friday ahead of Monday's plantings and stocks reports leaving a potential two-day island top on the daily chart. The outlook for a significant increase in soybean acres in Monday's report was the driving factor behind today's decline as traders looked to trim their risk exposure heading into Monday's reports. Additional pressure came from rumors that Argentina's 16-day farmers strike might be coming to an end and a rebound in the U.S. Dollar. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Despite today's sharp decline, stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews this week's rally, the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.76 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.76 1/2 would open the door for a possible test of the March 7th gap crossing at 14.58 1/2 later this spring.
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May soybean meal closed down $6.50 at $342.30. May soybean meal gapped down and closed lower on Friday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this week's short covering rally. Despite today's decline, May remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 334.60. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews this week's rally, the March 7th gap crossing at 368.80 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's gap crossing at 330.30 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.
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May soybean oil closed down 250 pts. at 54.98. May soybean oil gapped lower on the open and closed limit on Friday after the USDA revised yesterday's soybean oil stocks. On Thursday the USDA estimated U.S. soybean oil stocks at 2.68 billion pounds. However, this morning's revised estimate was raised by 430 million pounds to 3.101 billion pounds thereby triggering today's huge sell off. Additional pressure came from position squaring ahead of Monday's acreage and quarterly grain stocks report. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Despite today's limit down close, stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 59.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews last week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the August-March rally crossing at 53.20 is the next downside target.
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LIVESTOCK
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June hogs closed unchanged at $70.37. June hogs closed unchanged on Friday but not before spiking to a new contract low. Today's hogs and pigs report was view as bearish by analysts and traders as nearly all categories exceeded the high end of the pre-report survey forecast. The U.S. Department of Agriculture pegged all hogs and pigs numbers at 107.0% versus an average pre-report range of 103.3% to 105.6% of a year ago, with an average of 104.6%. The kept for breeding number came in at 100.0%. Forecasts showed a 100.2% average derived from a 99.0% to 102.0% range. The marketing figure came in at 107.0% versus a 105.3% forecast average. The projected range was 103.5% to 106.3%. The general consensus is that futures will be down sharply on Monday following today's bearish report. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 66.42 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.73 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 71.19. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.73. First support is today's low crossing at 69.95 then weekly support crossing at 66.42.
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May bellies closed down $1.00 at $70.50. May bellies gapped down and closed sharply lower on Friday posting a new contract low as it extended the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 70.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.17 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. April cattle closed down $0.97 at 87.65.
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April cattle posted a new contract low on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 87.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. April feeder cattle closed down $0.35 at $100.42.
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April Feeder cattle closed lower and posted a new contract low on Friday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 98.99 is the next downside target. However, closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
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Commodity Trading for Beginners
FRIDAY'S WINNERS and LOSERS 03.28.08
WINNERS
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SOYBEAN CRUSH INDEX
Sep 2008 / 107.5 / 9.5 / +9.69%
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OATS
Jul 2008 / 370.75 / 16.00 / +4.51%
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CORN
Dec 2010 / 555.00 / 13.00 / +2.41%
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CORN (MINI)
Dec 2010 / 555.00 / 13.00 / +2.41%
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ROUGH RICE
Jul 2008 / 20.00 / 0.45 / +2.30%
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NATURAL GAS
May 2008 / 9.800 / 0.113 / +1.16%
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LUMBER
Jul 2008 / 252.0 / 2.5 / +1.00%
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LOSERS
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SOYBEANS
May 2009 / 1187 / -60 / -4.82%
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SOYBEANS (MINI)
May 2009 / 1187 / -60 / -4.81%
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SOYBEAN OIL
May 2008 / 54.98 / -2.50 / -4.35%
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HARD RED SPRING WHEAT
Dec 2008 / 1041.00 / -41.75 / -3.86%
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SILVER
Apr 2008 / 17.900 / -0.615 / -3.39%
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PORK BELLIES
Feb 2009 / 85.500 / -2.925 / -3.31%
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HARD RED WINTER WHEAT
May 2008 / 1022.25 / -32.75 / -3.10%
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SOYBEAN MEAL
Dec 2008 / 289.5 / -8.5 / -2.85%
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WHEAT
Sep 2008 / 1000.0 / -28.0 / -2.72%
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WHEAT (MINI)
Sep 2008 / 1000.0 / -28.0 / -2.70%
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Trading Term of the Day ~ CALL OPTION
Call Option - An option that gives the buyer the right to be long the underlying futures contract at a specific price (strike price) on or before the expiration date. Call option buyers are not obligated to be long; they have the right to be long.
Sunday, July 22, 2007
Trading Term of the Day ~ OPEN INTEREST
Open Interest - The total number of futures contracts of a given commodity that have not yet been offset by opposite futures transactions nor fulfilled by delivery of the commodity; the total number of open transactions. Each open transaction has a buyer and a seller, but for calculation of open interest, only one side of the contract is counted.
Thursday, July 12, 2007
Trading Term of the Day ~ OPTION
Option - The right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying futures contract at a specific price during a specified time period. (Can also mean the price of cash grain or oilseed that is equal to the underlying futures price. Example: The cash price for soybeans in the first half of July is 8.00 and at the same time, July futures are8.00.) See also "Call Option," "Put Option" and "Strike."
Rainy Day Trader
Glossary of Trading Terms
Basics Of Options Trading
Rainy Day Trader
Glossary of Trading Terms
Basics Of Options Trading
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
Trading Term of the Day ~ FUTURES CONTRACT
Futures Contract - An agreement made at prices established in the trading pit or electronic trading to buy or sell a physical commodity sometime in the future. Futures contracts are standardized agreements, which specify quantity and quality of the physical commodity. They also specify the time of delivery and exchange designated point of delivery.
Rainy Day Trader
Glossary of Trading Terms
Basics Of Futures Trading
Rainy Day Trader
Glossary of Trading Terms
Basics Of Futures Trading
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